Dr. Trumplove Or: How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love Oil

How many times is this going to happen? 

How many times will we have to sit through the IEA revising its previous projections after spending months and years aggressively pursuing a bearish sentiment in global oil markets?

If this happened once or twice, you wouldn’t hear us complain, right? After all, it’s not an easy job. 

Getting it THIS WRONG for so long is just unforgivable. 

Let me give you a little perspective on just how wrong the IEA has been in the past. Back in 2010 — 15 years ago! — the IEA gave us this gem of a forecast:

Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70 md/d reached in 2006.

Of course, I write this as the IEA currently projects 2025 global supply to average 106.2 million barrels per day.

Don’t worry, they were only off by more than 30 million barrels per day… so much for that undulating plateau. 

It’s not just supply either. 

A year later in 2011, the IEA was projecting global demand to peak at 99 million barrels per day in 2035. 

And yet, the market narrative still clings to the IEA today. 

You and I both know what’s about to happen next. 

More Damn Lies and Oil Statistics

At a time when geopolitical risk should be inflationary for oil prices, markets look us right in the eye and give everyone a nonchalant shrug. 

Recent events from Trump’s oil war — from the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian offshore platforms — would have sent crude sharply higher a decade ago. 

Instead, WTI crude continues to stubbornly trade under $60 per barrel.

President Trump couldn’t be happier, too. 

You want to know just how crazy cheap things have gotten? 

Just keep in mind that a barrel of Texas Tea now officially costs less than an ounce of silver! 

However, this disconnect reveals something deeper. 

Today’s oil markets are anchoring themselves to flawed forecasts, not real-world risk.

The bearish narrative dominating 2025-26 isn’t based on microscopic geopolitical risk alone — it’s underpinned by overly optimistic demand projections and understated supply tightness from the IEA. 

For decades, history has shown that IEA forecasts tend to miss the mark over medium and long-term horizons. Forecasts of demand growth are often revised retroactively — wiping away past projections when reality diverges from the script. In effect, the agency calibrates after the fact rather than anticipating real structural change.

We’ve called bullshit on the IEA’s narrative before. 

Well, the band keeps marching on… this week, the IEA’s December 2025 Oil Market Report once again raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. 

The IEA now sees global demand growth next year rising by 860,000 barrels per day — a roughly 15% upward revision versus prior expectations! 

As if that weren’t enough inaccuracy for us, the agency also now projects that 2025 demand will be around 830,000 barrels per day, which suggests a demand accelerated approximately 1.1 million barrels per day during the third quarter — more than double that from Q2. 

And still, the markets turn a blind eye as oil prices languish.  

Let’s face it, If the IEA were simply a neutral data compiler, this wouldn’t matter much.

Unfortunately, the market is treating these forecasts as gospel — often reacting before the fundamentals change. 

Nevermind the IEA’s habit of issuing bullish demand forecasts after the fact. 

This time isn’t different — the latest revisions again expose the IEA’s instability in forecasting, leaving traders and strategists anchoring on outdated narratives instead of emergent realities.

Of course, compounding the issue is the IEA’s recently trimmed global oil supply growth forecast for 2026, acknowledging slower production increases yet still anticipating a hefty surplus. 

The IEA now sees supply exceeding demand by roughly 3.84 million bpd in 2026 — a massive imbalance that arguably keeps prices suppressed in thin trading conditions.

Let’s face it, dear reader, the fundamentals may actually be tighter than the IEA lets on.

They know that the consequences are dire, too. Remember a few months ago when the IEA warned the world needed to invest $500 billion in E&P operations — just to sustain existing production levels!

That huge investment hits especially hard in the U.S., where most of our oil wells will experience sharp first-year decline rates which demand continual drilling. 

If prices languish under $60, investment collapses and production eventually follows. This structural vulnerability suggests downside complacency is misplaced. 

When sentiment eventually swings — as it always does once traders look beyond headline forecasts and back toward real demand growth and tightening supply — prices could adjust sharply. 

My question is whether or not your portfolio will be ready. 

The Must-Own Oil Gem Drilling on U.S. Soil

If the broader oil market is misunderstood, the real investment edge lies below the surface — in companies actually producing oil profitably in a low-price environment.

Truth is, the ONLY thing keeping U.S. oil production from collapsing while oil trades under $60 per barrel isn’t bullish forecasts — it’s dramatically improved drilling efficiencies and cost management.

Across the most prominent U.S. oil regions like the Permian Basin are small, elite independent drillers consistently lowering break-even costs, reducing cycle times, and sustaining production while majors retreat. 

Here’s the best part — these hidden gems aren’t Exxon or Chevron!  They’re the smaller operators that have optimized technology and capital deployment to thrive where others struggle.

And when the market finally acknowledges the tighter fundamentals and higher real demand growth, efficiency-driven producers will outperform, turning under-the-radar drilling prowess into outsized investment returns. 

Let me show you one still flying under Wall Street’s radar, a must-own Permian oil stock that can still run its rigs profitably at $50-60 oil — these are the players that will shock you when oil market resets.

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